sanyero

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Background in consulting, med tech, software. EA.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(7 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 17, 2023 10:55AM UTC
(7 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 27, 2023 09:24AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 21, 2023 08:59AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
No Answer was correct

Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 24, 2023 09:44PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 26, 2023 05:03PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
In 3Q 2022 or 4Q 2022 Answer was incorrect
In 1Q 2023 or 2Q 2023 Answer was incorrect
In 3Q 2023 or 4Q 2023 Answer was incorrect
Not before 1Q 2024 Answer was correct

By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 26, 2023 05:04PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 26, 2023 05:04PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 24 Answer was correct
Between 25 and 34, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between 35 and 44, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between 45 and 54, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 55 Answer was incorrect

From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 26, 2023 05:04PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 26, 2023 05:05PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(5 months ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 26, 2023 05:05PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
No Answer was correct
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