Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 02, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 02, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 02, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 02, 2024 05:11PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | 0% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | 0% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Apr 12, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 15% | -13% | +1% |
| No | 98% | 85% | +13% | -1% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 13, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 13, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 90% | 90% | +0% | +4% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 10% | 9% | +1% | -4% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 13, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 13, 2024 02:03PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 13, 2024 02:04PM UTC
(14 days ago)
Apr 13, 2024 02:04PM UTC
(14 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 98% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(13 days ago)
Apr 14, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | Apr 14, 2024 to May 14, 2024 | May 14, 2024 | 5% | +10% | -5% |
| No | 85% | Apr 14, 2024 to May 14, 2024 | May 14, 2024 | 95% | -10% | +5% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 20, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Apr 20, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024 | May 20, 2024 | 2% | +4% | +1% |
| No | 94% | Apr 20, 2024 to Oct 20, 2024 | May 20, 2024 | 98% | -4% | -1% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Apr 27, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | 0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Apr 27, 2024 02:05PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024 | May 27, 2024 | 16% | +9% | -1% |
| No | 75% | Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024 | May 27, 2024 | 84% | -9% | +1% |