INFER Public

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2020 11:17PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2020 11:18PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2020 02:26PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $12 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $12 billion and $16 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $16 billion but less than or equal to $20 billion		Answer was correct
More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $24 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $24 billion		Answer was incorrect

How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2020 02:49PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $200 million		Answer was correct
More than $200 million but less than or equal to $500 million		Answer was incorrect
Between $500 million and $800 million, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $800 million but less than or equal to $1.1 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $1.1 billion		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 22, 2020 08:14PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30%		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36%		Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39%		Answer was incorrect
More than 39%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 18, 2020 06:46AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant between October 1, 2020 and September 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 25, 2021 06:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 07, 2021 08:21PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 5,000 and 7,500, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 7,500 but less than or equal to 10,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to12,500		Answer was correct
More than12,500		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 10, 2021 09:51PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was correct
More than 80%		Answer was incorrect

What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 16, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 14, 2021 12:54PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $20		Answer was incorrect
Between $20 and $100, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $100 but less than or equal to $300		Answer was incorrect
More than $300 but less than or equal to $500		Answer was incorrect
More than $500 but less than or equal to $1000		Answer was incorrect
More than $1000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 23, 2021 05:57PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%		Answer was correct
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6.5%		Answer was incorrect

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