drewledbetter

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2.886639

Relative Brier Score

61

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 0 0 225
Comments 0 0 0 0 2
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 98
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 6
 Definitions
New Prediction

Passage of time plus no "new" news on this topic of the last month. Has not happened in the last 6 years either, so it would take a massive change over the next 60 days for this to resolve yes. 

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New Prediction

Current events make this unlikely given the state of emergency that has recently been issued. 

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New Prediction
drewledbetter
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
65%
Japan
46%
The Netherlands
32%
South Korea
5%
Any other country not listed

Japan seems likely based on the meeting with Biden last week and the readouts that came from that. Netherlands is more of a toss-up given the post meeting remarks. Passage of time as well has to be factored into this equation. This could take 2+ months to finalize the exact wording of any potential agreement. 

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New Prediction

Unlikely, but a reasonable chance of an assassination or a coup attempt over this period of time. 

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New Prediction

I think this is unlikely, but due to the short resolution time period for this question, I think the variance is much higher. China could have launches that are not publicly available on any schedule yet as well. 

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New Prediction

I think what is most likely is that they will reduce some restrictions, but a complete reversal of the "zero-covid" policy by the end of this month is unlikely. 

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New Prediction
drewledbetter
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 14, 2022 04:59PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2022 to Dec 14, 2022

Unlikely given current climate. 

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