ACordetti

I dont see any events involving China in this timeframe especially considering their reliance on outside chips, and the news that the new Huawei phone had chips made in Taiwan (here) and not China as previously believed. Additionally Typhoon season near Taiwan starts in July (what I believe is the most common natural disaster for the area). 

The only newsworthy items about the Russia - Ukraine conflict currently are whether or not the US will continue to provide funding to Ukraine. Domestically Im not sure how its landing with the Russian people, but there doesnt seem to have been any news of backlash against the president. 

Maybe because of other international issues, but this seems to have been less and less of an international topic as of late. Also, China appears to be trying to address their own economic issues currently and rely too strongly on the west to consider actions that would alienate them from many countries 

Both parties seem very stubborn in their stance, and especially considering the recent news of the Israeli of a hospital (here) which appears to be very inflammatory, I dont see a lot of headway being made anytime soon unless there are some changes or outside intervention

No announcement is going to be made on a Sunday, the 31st

I thought I had previously forecasted this question, but no way a new version is released on a Sunday and the 31st

Based on the 12/21 report the current average for 2023 is 7.333% meaning the 4 Q average would have to drop significantly to pull it below 6%