Forecasted Questions
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2023 05:15PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 30, 2023 05:15PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2023 05:17PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 30, 2023 05:17PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 5% | -4% | -5% |
| No | 99% | 95% | +4% | +5% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 11, 2023 03:47PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 11, 2023 03:47PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 8% | 9% | -1% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 31% | 11% | +20% | -10% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 11, 2023 03:50PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Dec 11, 2023 03:50PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 55% | +0% | +28% |
| No | 45% | 45% | +0% | -28% |
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2023 02:30PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Dec 30, 2023 02:30PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 13% | -8% | -28% |
| No | 95% | 87% | +8% | +28% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2023 02:31PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Dec 30, 2023 02:31PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 44% | 94% | -50% | +49% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 53% | 5% | +48% | -40% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 2% | 0% | +2% | -5% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | -3% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 1% | 0% | +1% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2023 02:32PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Dec 30, 2023 02:32PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 4% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 97% | 96% | +1% | +2% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2023 02:34PM UTC
(4 months ago)
Dec 30, 2023 02:34PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | -2% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +2% |