INFER Public

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 30, 2023 04:03PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	18%	94%	-76%	+62%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	42%	6%	+36%	-36%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	31%	0%	+31%	-16%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	7%	0%	+7%	-8%
More than or equal to 200	2%	0%	+2%	-2%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2023 03:49PM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	1%	+3%	-11%
No	96%	99%	-3%	+11%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2023 03:57PM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	2%	+6%	-17%
No	92%	98%	-6%	+17%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2023 04:00PM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	63%	14%	+49%	-38%
No	37%	86%	-49%	+38%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2023 04:06PM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	5%	+65%	-18%
No	30%	95%	-65%	+18%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 13, 2023 08:25PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q4	2%	0%	+2%	+0%
2024 Q1	2%	1%	+1%	-1%
2024 Q2	4%	1%	+3%	-1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 13, 2023 08:25PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	28%	99%	-71%	+54%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	39%	1%	+38%	-49%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	21%	0%	+21%	-4%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	8%	0%	+8%	-1%
More than or equal to 2000	4%	0%	+4%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 13, 2023 08:26PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 749	3%	1%	+2%	-1%
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive	16%	0%	+16%	-28%
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive	59%	5%	+54%	-45%
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive	17%	94%	-77%	+75%
More than or equal to 3000	5%	0%	+5%	-1%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 14, 2023 07:48PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	14%	4%	+10%	-8%
No	86%	96%	-10%	+8%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 22, 2023 02:27AM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
Oman	4%	2%	+2%	-3%
Qatar	5%	2%	+3%	-1%
Saudi Arabia	4%	5%	-1%	-15%
Tunisia	4%	1%	+3%	-2%

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