INFER Public

Forecasted Questions

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2021 01:32PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 12:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 26,000		Answer was correct
Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 32,000		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 12:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $470 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $680 billion		Answer was correct

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 12:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 12:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $40 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $100 billion		Answer was correct

How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 12:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 800		Answer was incorrect
Between 800 and 4,000		Answer was correct
More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 100,000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 12:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was incorrect
More than 80%		Answer was correct

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 12:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 28, 2021 12:54AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 70,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 130,000		Answer was correct

Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 05:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2021 07:04PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct