Forecasted Questions
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 12% | +58% | -19% |
| No | 30% | 88% | -58% | +19% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(16 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | 4% | +11% | -3% |
| No | 85% | 96% | -11% | +3% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 15% | 8% | +7% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 10% | 11% | -1% | -4% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
| Qatar | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 01, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 5% | 1% | +4% | +0% |
Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2024 03:12AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 01, 2024 03:12AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 2% | +5% | -1% |
| No | 93% | 98% | -5% | +1% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 01, 2024 04:37AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Mar 01, 2024 04:37AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 8% | -5% | -1% |
| No | 97% | 92% | +5% | +1% |