Confirmed previous forecast
0.335362
Relative Brier Score
55
Forecasts
8
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 16 | 164 | 62 | 290 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 96 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 15 | 32 | 17 | 48 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 19 | 7 | 36 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+14%)
Yes
20%
(-14%)
No
Progress so far this year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
6%
(-8%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
94%
(+8%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Iran activities are continuing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
51%
(0%)
Yes
49%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
48%
(0%)
Yes
52%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
10%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files