Based on the next elections analysis the massive disqualification of candidates in both elections by the regime caused many Iranian voters to ignore these races. The ideologically narrow composition of that body shows that the current supreme leader, the 84-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has decided to prepare for his succession by ensuring that his choice won’t be derailed by dissent within the ruling elite.
0.042521
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 29 | 4 | 57 |
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| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
30%
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 27, 2024 04:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
Yes
Mar 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
85%
No
Mar 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Because Hezbollah is an Iranian-backed movement, with its central base on the Israeli-Lebanese border, if Israel declares war on it, it could trigger a broader regional conflict, leading to diplomatic rifts and protests not only in the region, but around the world.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Due to increase of IA activities, social media companies will be helped by it to write posts and save work
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 06:51PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024
95%
No
Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024
According to previous trends between military tensions between both countries, it is not advisable to start a war with a world-class military power, much less being in the position between countries allied to the power around the territory.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files