Investigate more about the "chip war" phenomenon
0.315648
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 16 | 4 | 37 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 27 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-61%)
2023 Q2
0%
(-56%)
2023 Q3
0%
(-58%)
2023 Q4
2%
(-60%)
2024 Q1
2%
(-57%)
2024 Q2
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not paying more attention to the international context
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Quoting the Democratic Senator Tim Kaine said "It's imperative that the administration respond to these actions while demonstrating it is both a strategy for deterring aggression and appropriate legal doctrine," said Young. "To date, I have not seen such a strategy put forward." This makes the Red Sea area unsafe https://www.reuters.com/world/us/senior-us-senators-want-congress-authorize-strikes-against-houthis-2024-02-27/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Tensions between the United States and China are relatively calm, no more countries have joined in to ban China from the microcircuit market
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than $90
85%
More than or equal to $90 but less than $100
10%
More than or equal to $100 but less than $110
0%
More than or equal to $110 but less than $120
0%
More than or equal to $120
Why do you think you're right?
The possible cuts by OPEC to maintain the price will not be able to take the price of a barrel above 100 dollars.
The strong pressure on oil production by the US will keep the price of a barrel below 100 dollars
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A high impact armed conflict
Files
The war against Hamas continues to be very costly economically speaking, which leaves very little room for more confrontations.