The war against Hamas continues to be very costly economically speaking, which leaves very little room for more confrontations.
0.963056
Relative Brier Score
38
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 38 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 28 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Microelectronics,
Manufacturing,
semiconductors
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 30, 2024 04:19AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
98%
No
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-61%)
2023 Q2
0%
(-56%)
2023 Q3
0%
(-58%)
2023 Q4
2%
(-60%)
2024 Q1
2%
(-57%)
2024 Q2
Why do you think you're right?
Investigate more about the "chip war" phenomenon
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Not paying more attention to the international context
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Quoting the Democratic Senator Tim Kaine said "It's imperative that the administration respond to these actions while demonstrating it is both a strategy for deterring aggression and appropriate legal doctrine," said Young. "To date, I have not seen such a strategy put forward." This makes the Red Sea area unsafe https://www.reuters.com/world/us/senior-us-senators-want-congress-authorize-strikes-against-houthis-2024-02-27/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Tensions between the United States and China are relatively calm, no more countries have joined in to ban China from the microcircuit market
Files
Based on the response to the invasion of Ukraine, Russia will not seek an escalation of confrontation with Europe and the United States