Confirmed previous forecast
-0.00399
Relative Brier Score
91
Forecasts
3
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 23 | 573 | 91 | 958 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 12 | 47 | 17 | 75 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 60 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
75%
(0%)
Yes
25%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
97%
(+2%)
No
Adjusting downwards.
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Kharkiv
0%
Kyiv
1%
Odesa
Same reasoning as others, only Kharkiv seems plausible within the current stalemate.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Moldova
1%
Armenia
3%
Georgia
1%
Kazakhstan
Certainly more likely than the Baltics, especially Moldova. I do think they will avoid incurring additional risk given they have their hands full with Ukraine already, but I guess time will tell.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Most likely not on this very short timeframe, as others have pointed out. Especially given that no single attack on Kyiv was that deadly so far in the war.
Files