‘They Are Erasing Streets’: Russian Attacks Bring War Nearer Kharkiv https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/11/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kharkiv.html?unlocked_article_code=1.rE0.5hvC.dflhxMRrgWBM
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...offensive is unlikely to reach the streets of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian military has built elaborate defenses around the city — digging miles of trenches and sewing the landscape with glistening razor wire, mines and countless small cement pyramids that block tanks — “dragons’ teeth,” as the soldiers here call them.
So they do have a Surovkin Line in a concentric circle facing North towards Belgorad. And northeast.
Russia could proceed as much as a kilometer a day as Ukrainian troops retreat towards Kiev.
So the Ukrainians execute a strategic retreat against a complex combined assault
I am assuming that they wll be successful and retreat in good order evacuating civilians as they retreat to Izium. First Russia occupied Izium then imprisoned and tortured the residents
Somehow with little or no Western assistance they uses their old Soviet tanks.
Now these residents certainly do not wish to be occupied by Russia again.
So within 30 days most of Kharkiv will be under constant artillery bombardment with shells produced by DPRK and drones supplied by Iran.
At that point when they begin close artillery attack on civilians and military targets within the concentric defenses without missiles or smart bombardment
That is an attack on Kharkiv from my viewpoint.
I am updating to reflect the ongoing demonstrations over the Georgia Dream Party Foreign Agents Registration Act. Putin and Lukashenko used identical legislation to muzzle the press and Civil Society in Belarus.
This may evolve like Maidan revolution in Kiev in 2014 because this legislation would remove Tbilsi for from the line awaiting EU candidate status. Per opinion polls and my own recent on scene observations in Batumi over 80 percent of people especially young support EU.
This issue provoked the Maidan revolt and like Yannuovitch Russian proxy Party of the Regions in Ukraine, its proxy Georgian Dream is starting to brutalize the protesters.
Inasmuch as Georgia Dream has a parliamentary majority and elections are not until 2026, and its sponsor a billionaire Russian oligarch rules Georgia from. a glass and steel mega mansion, the oligarch is not likely to cut and run.
Russia already invaded Georgia in 2008 seizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia provinces and Russian troops are 25 miles from Tibilsi and 100 miles from Batumi.
I still think it's extremely unlikely now. 1 Putin is occupied in Ukraine. 2 Putin proxy controls parliament. 3 Putin needs Georgia as an Independent entity to circumvent sanctions.
But in Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine, Putin will intervene when requested or his proxys control threatened.
These demonstrations bear watching because the Georgian people will revolt against unpopular rulers.
Fall of Shevernadze and Sashkavilli were presaged by demonstrations such as these and 50,000 reportedly demonstrated last night.
Fall of government and return of pro NATO and pro EU government would create a serious risk of a Russian invasion as the 2008 version still continues.
It seems that the Putin doctrine is that Russia will intervene if asked. see Kazakhstan and Belarus Will nvade any former USSR republic on Russian borders that becomes a candidate for admission to NATO and or EU. See Ukraine and Georgia
As this question does not resolve until 2026, accession of a Pro NATO majority or even just pro EU could trigger a Russian invasion by that time.
It would take only 25,000 conscripts and almost no armor for Russia to invade and occupy Tbilisi and Batumi. Such an invasion might not trigger organized military opposition as Putin flunkies already in charge.
It is much more likely Georgia Dream party loses parliamentary elections in 2026 and Putin invades then