Confirmed previous forecast
0.134696
Relative Brier Score
327
Forecasts
61
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 42 | 115 | 504 | 327 | 612 |
| Comments | 2 | 10 | 139 | 56 | 201 |
| Questions Forecasted | 19 | 21 | 28 | 24 | 39 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 16 | 128 | 61 | 146 |
| Â Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Aug 2, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jun 2, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
71%
(0%)
Yes
May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jun 2, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024
96%
(0%)
No
May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jun 2, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(0%)
Yes
May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024
80%
(0%)
No
May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Aug 2, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
(+13%)
Yes
May 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
30%
(-13%)
No
May 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5%
(0%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?
Perhaps crowd correct. It seems Like their objectives are Konstantinivka and Chasi Yar. It seems like the potential for attack is there and growing as Ukrainian shortage of men and ammo continuesÂ
Why might you be wrong?
To attack Odessa they must cross 2 major rivers Dnieper and Bug and to attack Kiev they need air superiority and won't be able to land at Hostomel Airfield.
I think new delivery of Patriots makes an assault on either next to impossible.