INFER Public

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 10:06AM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Latvia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 10:07AM UTC
(17 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	6%	-1%	+0%
No	95%	Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	94%	+1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 09:11AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	3%	-2%	-1%
No	99%	97%	+2%	+1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 09:11AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	7%	8%	-1%	+0%
Su-35 fighter jets	5%	11%	-6%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 09:13AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	99%	95%	+4%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 09:15AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024	Jun 2, 2024	3%	+17%	+1%
No	80%	May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024	Jun 2, 2024	97%	-17%	-1%

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 09:15AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024	Jun 2, 2024	20%	-16%	+4%
No	96%	May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024	Jun 2, 2024	80%	+16%	-4%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 02, 2024 09:16AM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	May 2, 2024 to Nov 2, 2024	Aug 2, 2024	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 08, 2024 05:22AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	51%	May 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025	Aug 8, 2024	10%	+41%	-3%
No	49%	May 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025	Aug 8, 2024	90%	-41%	+3%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 08, 2024 11:26AM UTC
(9 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
No	100%	96%	+4%	+0%

Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

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