FeelWuu

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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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 Definitions
New Prediction

Following two Artemis test missions, Artemis III, currently planned for 2025 which was announced by the NASA earlier.

NASA was working with a plan to return astronauts to the moon by 2028, but 2 years ago, the White House directed NASA to speed up plans to 2024 instead. Taking in consideration the huge scale and challenges of the mission and that the last time they did that so many years ago, I think it will take more time and the mission will be postponed again.


My prognose for the actual flight is 2027-2029. 

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New Prediction
FeelWuu
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Oct 29, 2023 10:09PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (0%)
Yes
Sep 29, 2023 to Mar 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
FeelWuu
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
20% (0%)
Less than 7%
20% (0%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
20% (0%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
20% (0%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
20% (0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction

Only 433 qubits is the highest number ever achieved for a quantum processor at the moment. The company announced to demonstrate an even more powerful processor by the end of 2023 which is known as 'Condor', but taking in consideration that there has not been verified updates and we're heading to October now, I think that probability is quite low.

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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction

I've done some research and it looks like that however, OpenAI on July 18th, 2023 filed a trademark for GPT-5 with the USPTO. While it's an exciting development, we are still not sure that GPT-5 is on the horizon. In fact, experts suggest that OpenAI might come out with GPT-4.5, an intermediate release between GPT-4 and GPT-5 by October 2023, just like GPT-3.5.Aug 10, 2023

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New Prediction
FeelWuu
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
35%
S-400 or S-500 missile system
20%
Su-35 fighter jets

Russia has yet to publicly confirm if it will supply the S-400s in question. There was no such new yet.

As to SU-35 fighter Jets. Iran’s defense minister has tacitly confirmed that the deal to buy long-sought Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets from Russia has collapsed.  


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New Prediction
FeelWuu
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Sep 30, 2023 06:16AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (0%)
Yes
Aug 30, 2023 to Feb 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
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