Making my initial forecast equal to the crowd's due to posts by @PeterStamp, @cmeinel, and @MrLittleTexasÂ
-0.73051
Relative Brier Score
64
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 26 | 158 | 64 | 158 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 23 | 3 | 23 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 14 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13 |
| Â Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Zeroing out due to the passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirming my previous forecast for now (due to the passage of time)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
Confirming my previous forecast for now
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 22, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024
93%
(0%)
No
Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024
Confirming previous forecast for now
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on May 22, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
24%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024
76%
(0%)
No
Apr 22, 2024 to Oct 22, 2024
Confirming my previous forecast for now
Files
Lowering my forecast slightly due to the passage of time and no major developments since my last forecast