INFER Public

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 04, 2024 02:26PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 02:19PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	90%	94%	-4%	+8%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	10%	5%	+5%	-8%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 200	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 02:19PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	90%	99%	-9%	+4%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	10%	1%	+9%	-3%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 2000	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	82%	-22%	-2%
No	40%	18%	+22%	+2%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024	May 15, 2024	6%	-5%	+5%
No	99%	Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024	May 15, 2024	94%	+5%	-5%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 02:20PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	+0%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 15, 2024 02:24PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025	Jul 15, 2024	14%	+1%	-2%
No	85%	Apr 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2025	Jul 15, 2024	86%	-1%	+2%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 07:51PM UTC
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025	May 19, 2024	22%	-7%	-5%
No	85%	Apr 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025	May 19, 2024	78%	+7%	+5%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 25, 2024 04:51PM UTC
(8 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	2%	+8%	+0%
No	90%	98%	-8%	+0%

aggaray

About: