Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 29, 2021 03:29AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 29, 2021 03:29AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 35% | +40% | -4% |
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 16, 2021 06:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 16, 2021 06:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2021 10:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 13, 2021 10:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2021 10:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 13, 2021 10:48PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 15% | 14% | +1% | +0% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 35% | 31% | +4% | +0% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 30% | 33% | -3% | +1% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 15% | 17% | -2% | +0% |
| More than 0.5 | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2021 10:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 13, 2021 10:50PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 08, 2022 04:42AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 08, 2022 04:42AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 25% | 48% | -23% | +14% |
| Microsoft | 15% | 22% | -7% | +3% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 20% | 13% | +7% | -3% |
| Amazon | 35% | 10% | +25% | -6% |
| Tesla | 5% | 3% | +2% | -4% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 0% | 1% | -1% | -4% |
| Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 22, 2022 03:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 22, 2022 03:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 11, 2022 03:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 11, 2022 03:10PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 10:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 21, 2022 10:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 14% | 0% | 3% | -3% | +0% |
| Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 3% | 12% | -9% | -1% |
| More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 15% | 31% | -16% | -2% |
| More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 32% | 40% | -8% | +2% |
| More than 20% | 50% | 14% | +36% | +1% |
How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 17, 2022 02:35PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 17, 2022 02:35PM UTC
(1 year ago)