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Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2020 06:46PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 29, 2021 11:04PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was correct
More than 80%		Answer was incorrect

What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 16, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 02, 2021 02:35PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $20		Answer was incorrect
Between $20 and $100, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $100 but less than or equal to $300		Answer was incorrect
More than $300 but less than or equal to $500		Answer was incorrect
More than $500 but less than or equal to $1000		Answer was incorrect
More than $1000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 05, 2021 05:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 15%		Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%		Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%		Answer was incorrect
More than 21%		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 09, 2021 02:08PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 23, 2021 05:24PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2021 09:27PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 26,000		Answer was correct
Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 32,000		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2021 09:27PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2021 09:27PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $470 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $680 billion		Answer was correct

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 09, 2021 09:27PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%		Answer was incorrect
Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 12%		Answer was incorrect

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