sepeskoe

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Executive level management. 40 years of high tech R&D for the DoD, Intelligence Community and Homeland Security.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022? -0.003217
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM UTC How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)? 0.35489
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022? -0.434062
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022) -0.185447
May 31, 2022 03:08PM UTC Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022? 0.270847
Apr 28, 2022 04:00AM UTC What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey? 0.095204
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022? 0.295004
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022) 0.057242
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021) 0.52967
Feb 03, 2022 02:00PM UTC What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021? -0.104142
Jan 31, 2022 03:38PM UTC How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.096223
Jan 31, 2022 03:35PM UTC How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years? - 2021 H2 -0.006539
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.146068
Jan 31, 2022 03:05PM UTC How will the ratio of China-authored to U.S.-authored highly cited (top 1%) AI papers change over the next three years? - 2021 0.030714
Jan 31, 2022 02:48PM UTC How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? -0.598553
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.0888
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) -0.003123
Jan 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 17, 2021 and Jan 17, 2022) 0.000755
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive? 0.609722
Jan 04, 2022 01:16PM UTC How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021? -0.020284
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