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Iran: Threats & Influence
Closing
Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC
(1 year)
Forecasting questions related to Iran's nuclear development, foreign relations, and influence on violent non-state actors.
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Iran Nuclear Program (11)
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Iran-VNSAs (9)
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Question
Crowd Forecast
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
65
·
313
10%
Chance
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
100
·
458
3%
Chance
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
97
·
445
4%
Chance
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
48
·
293
3%
Chance
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
82
·
524
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
99
·
520
0%
Chance
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
91
·
493
4%
Chance
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Closing
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
75
·
493
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
86
·
564
4%
Chance
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
55
·
354
2%
Chance
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