Time and ongoing conflict
0.001831
Relative Brier Score
122
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 26 | 433 | 122 | 1236 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 107 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 21 | 49 | 27 | 108 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6 | 86 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Kuwait
1%
(-1%)
Oman
1%
(0%)
Qatar
2%
(-1%)
Saudi Arabia
1%
(0%)
Tunisia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-8%)
Yes
May 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
96%
(+8%)
No
May 6, 2024 to May 6, 2025
Time to go down on Yes, like others have mentioned a declaration of war is far from politically beneficial
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Yes
98%
(+1%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
92%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to May 3, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+3%)
Yes
97%
(-3%)
No
Updating forecasting error
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-11%)
Yes
100%
(+11%)
No
More likely military collaspes and elections are held than the military holding elections.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
94%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
May 3, 2024 to Nov 3, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Time