Confirmed previous forecast
0.308707
Relative Brier Score
298
Forecasts
21
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 36 | 465 | 298 | 2236 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 80 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 36 | 92 | 63 | 291 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 28 | 21 | 149 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
3%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-2%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
100%
(+2%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
unlikely
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(0%)
Yes
65%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025
65%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Sep 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than 24%
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
55%
(-10%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
40%
(+10%)
More than or equal to 28%
tweaking
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Sep 1, 2024 to Mar 1, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
starting