32nd

Accuracy Rank

JJMLP

About:

Active Forecaster

Mission: AI Advancement

Active Forecaster

Active Forecaster

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-0.092

Relative Brier Score

497

Forecasts

63

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	22	58	750	497	1793
Comments	0	0	34	32	74
Questions Forecasted	22	55	138	102	250
Upvotes on Comments By This User	0	1	67	63	121
Definitions

New Prediction

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

JJMLP made their 4th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

55% (+0%)

Yes

45% (+0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Sep 20, 2023 10:55AM UTC

New Prediction

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

JJMLP made their 4th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

8% (+0%)

Yes

92% (+0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Sep 20, 2023 10:55AM UTC

New Prediction

Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?

JJMLP made their 4th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

35% (+0%)

Yes

65% (+0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Sep 20, 2023 10:55AM UTC

New Prediction

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

JJMLP made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

1% (+0%)

Yes

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Sep 20, 2023 10:55AM UTC

New Prediction

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

JJMLP made their 5th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

5% (+0%)

Yes

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Sep 20, 2023 10:55AM UTC

New Prediction

From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran?

JJMLP made their 9th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

3% (-3%)

Yes

Updating passage of time

Files

Sep 20, 2023 10:55AM UTC

New Prediction

From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan?

JJMLP made their 9th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

3% (-3%)

Yes

Updating passage of time

Files

Sep 20, 2023 10:54AM UTC

New Prediction

Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?

JJMLP made their 9th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

1% (-2%)

Yes

updating passage of time

Files

Sep 20, 2023 10:54AM UTC

New Prediction

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?

JJMLP made their 7th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

10% (+0%)

Yes

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Sep 20, 2023 10:53AM UTC

New Prediction

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

JJMLP made their 1st forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

Forecast Window

10%

Yes

Sep 16, 2023 to Mar 16, 2024

Currently unlikely starting low

Files

Sep 16, 2023 03:52PM UTC