32nd
Accuracy Rank

PeterStamp

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-0.224088

Relative Brier Score

714

Forecasts

157

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 27 88 1467 714 1907
Comments 1 9 100 46 168
Questions Forecasted 26 30 94 48 125
Upvotes on Comments By This User 8 26 346 157 586
 Definitions
New Badge
PeterStamp
earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting in 125 questions!
New Prediction
PeterStamp
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Aug 14, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Jul 14, 2024 to Jan 14, 2025
97%
No
Jul 14, 2024 to Jan 14, 2025

On the one hand the bar for this is relatively low: announcing to "resume the normalization process" is cheap. Plus, it´s in the interest of both sides (=governments) to do so. But then there is the Gaza war going on (with substantial risk for further escalation towards Lebanon), and the people "on the streets" in the muslim countries would not understand normalizing relationship with the "arch enemy" right now. There might be riots because of this, and that´s about the last thing someone (MBS) keeping the whole thing together with brute force would risk. Very likely in a few years, very unlikely as long as the war is going on. 3% looks fine for me.

Files
New Prediction

Only 5 1/2 months left, base rate close to zero as described under "More Info" above and the US not counting in case they tried it. Slightly more moderate new president in Iran "elected" recently, plus, there´s already enough heat on the kettle in the Near/Middle East. No, this looks very unlikely to me. One symbolic percent should be enough.

Files
New Prediction
PeterStamp
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Jul 14, 2024 to Jan 14, 2025
95%
No
Jul 14, 2024 to Jan 14, 2025

This would surely be part of a worst (!!!) case scenario, with a massive escalation between Iran and Israel (plus the US, and possibly Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region). IF there was an all-out war, this would certainly be part of it. But I don´t consider it likely without that, because it certainly would lead to that 100% escalation. Nobody, except for a few radicals, wants that. But it could still happen, if some hot-headed folks decide to go wild. We´ve been quite close to something like this shortly (when it was about more symbolic attacks, but still far beyond what was "normal" before), and things might spiral out of control again.
The threat is real, but most players would try to avoid it at all costs, at least unless Iran was about to publish, that it has nukes and threatens to attack Israel with them.
5% looks fair to me here.

Files
New Prediction
PeterStamp
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Jul 14, 2024 to Jan 14, 2025
95%
No
Jul 14, 2024 to Jan 14, 2025

This should already have happened between October 2022 and today (so base rate looks bad), and there is so much chaos in Lebanon, that this looks highly unlikely. The country is dominated by Iran´s Hezbollah, plus a lot of tribes and religious factions. All hating each other, most corrupt, certainly nothing and nobody to easily agree on to be found (especially not, if it needs to be a maronitic christian (whatever that is) according to link 1). Then there´s the uncertainy about Hezbollah/Israel, which might very well lead to all-out war and Lebanon´s total destruction.
No, 5% at best.

https://www.vaticannews.va/de/vatikan/news/2024-06/libanon-erwartungen-an-parolins-besuch-in-beirut.html

Files
New Prediction
PeterStamp
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Aug 12, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
Yes
Jul 12, 2024 to Jan 12, 2025
86%
No
Jul 12, 2024 to Jan 12, 2025

Most probably not (makes no military sense concerning the possible risks), and they are negotiating about Gaza), but who knows... If at all, it might happen in the next few weeks.

Files
New Prediction
PeterStamp
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Aug 12, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Jul 12, 2024 to Jan 12, 2025
99%
No
Jul 12, 2024 to Jan 12, 2025

Rounded up to 1%. No, they are not that foolish.

Files
New Prediction
PeterStamp
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
23%
Yes
Jul 12, 2024 to Jul 12, 2025
77%
No
Jul 12, 2024 to Jul 12, 2025
Most probably not (makes no military sense concerning the possible risks), and they are negotiating about Gaza), but who knows...
Files
New Prediction
PeterStamp
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
7% (-3%)
Less than 24%
15% (-5%)
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26%
55% (+5%)
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28%
23% (+3%)
More than or equal to 28%

Slight adjustment upwards (reasoning see discussion with @JonathanMann  below).

Files
New Prediction
PeterStamp
made their 43rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Kuwait
0% (0%)
Oman
0% (0%)
Qatar
3% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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