24th
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PeterStamp

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-0.001624

Relative Brier Score

358

Forecasts

72

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Why should Huawei not join the organization, if as diverse members as AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO, Nokia, Ericsson, Orange etc. are already on board? That´s about almost every major player worldwide except for Huawei. Is it really "all others against them alone"? Do they fear to get less 5g business, lose market power if they join?

At least the bar for this is relatively low: "This question will be resolved as “Yes” if Huawei or the O-RAN Alliance announce a collaboration between them on or before 1 October 2025. Such a collaboration might include, but is not limited to, Huawei joining the O-RAN Alliance, testing or developing equipment with O-RAN standards, or making financial or resource commitments.".

TESTING of O-RAN standard equipment or "resource commitment" is enough. And we´ve got a loooong time frame for this. Will need to do more research, but this looks quite likely. Starting with 20%.

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Some basics: "O-RAN ALLIANCE has been founded in February 2018 by AT&T, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, NTT DOCOMO and Orange. It has been established as a German entity in August 2018.". So some of the world´s major players from around the globe involved (link 1). And OTICs seem to be present worldwide as well (link 2), with 6 of them in the US and at least one in China. So far this looks like they´re serious, and that this might work. But...

Base rate for this (since 2018?!): zero so far for US OTICs. Why not? Almost certainly for national security reasons or national business interests. Relationships between China and the rest to me look worse now than they were most of the time since 2018. and there have been resentments against chinese 4g and 5g technology to be used in Europe and the US. Why should it be different here? Fear of some secret back doors implemented will be big on all sides. When it comes to things like that, the US are quite paranoid - and with a lot of reasons.

Will need to do more research on this, but at first sight this looks much lower than 50:50 to me. Starting with 40%.

https://www.o-ran.org/about

https://www.o-ran.org/testing-integration#otics-list

https://www.ip-insider.de/was-ist-open-ran-a-c139136631baab28111d6694b698b6d4/



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PeterStamp
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
4% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
96% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
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