381 as of 3 May. Up 6 in a week. Only 3 weeks to go. This is definitely done.
https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard
-0.054744
Relative Brier Score
462
Forecasts
99
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 23 | 127 | 1392 | 462 | 1655 |
| Comments | 4 | 8 | 103 | 25 | 147 |
| Questions Forecasted | 22 | 26 | 84 | 33 | 110 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 3 | 32 | 380 | 99 | 528 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 499
0%
(0%)
Between 500 and 999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2000
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 749
0%
(0%)
Between 750 and 1499, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive
99%
(-1%)
Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive
1%
(+1%)
More than or equal to 3000
2274 as of 3 May. Up 82 in a week (which is more than in usual weeks). Entered second highest bin. Only the rest of this month to go. 726 incidents necessary for highest bin. Extremely unlikely, but who knows?
https://acleddata.com/dashboard/#/dashboard
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Rounding down to zero for
a) no news about record numbers of rockets fired in the past few days (there will be a time lag with ACLED reporting, but I´m quite sure, that until now no such event occured) and no reason in sight, why there should be a sudden rush
b) Russia having the chance to make a difference in Donbas etc., before the aid package is fully in use, so why waste resources on Kyiv now?
c) attacks on cities / civilian infrastructure making less "sense" (even for a paranoid sociopath) in spring than in autumn or winter.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Yes
50%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
6%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Last news about these speculations was Microsoft´s denial in January. And they are still searching for researchers to hire for Hong Kong and Beijing (link 1).
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/lab/microsoft-research-asia/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
x