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Plataea479

Steven Goldblatt

0.21207

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342

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69

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New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Moldova
0% (0%)
Armenia
11% (+8%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan

I am updating to reflect the ongoing demonstrations over the Georgia Dream Party Foreign Agents Registration Act. Putin and Lukashenko used  identical legislation to muzzle the press and Civil Society in Belarus.

This may evolve like Maidan revolution in Kiev in 2014 because this legislation would  remove Tbilsi for from the line awaiting EU candidate status. Per opinion polls and my own recent on scene observations in Batumi over 80 percent of people especially young support EU.

This issue provoked the Maidan revolt and like Yannuovitch Russian proxy Party of the Regions in Ukraine, its proxy Georgian Dream is starting to brutalize the protesters.

Inasmuch as Georgia Dream has a parliamentary majority and elections are not until 2026, and its sponsor a billionaire Russian oligarch rules Georgia from. a glass and steel mega mansion, the oligarch is not likely to cut and run.

Russia already invaded Georgia in 2008 seizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia  provinces and Russian troops are 25 miles from Tibilsi and 100 miles from Batumi.

I still think it's extremely unlikely now. 1 Putin is occupied in Ukraine. 2 Putin proxy controls parliament. 3 Putin needs Georgia as an Independent entity to circumvent sanctions.

But in Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine, Putin will intervene when requested or his proxys control threatened. 

These demonstrations bear watching because the Georgian people will revolt against unpopular rulers.

Fall of Shevernadze and Sashkavilli were presaged by demonstrations such as these and 50,000 reportedly demonstrated last night.

Fall of government and return of pro NATO and pro EU government would create a serious risk of a Russian invasion as the 2008 version still continues.

It seems that the Putin doctrine is that  Russia will intervene if asked. see Kazakhstan and  Belarus  Will nvade any former USSR republic on Russian borders that  becomes a candidate for admission to NATO and or EU. See Ukraine and Georgia 

As this question does not resolve until 2026, accession of a Pro NATO majority or even just pro EU could trigger a Russian invasion by that time.

It would take only 25,000 conscripts and almost no armor for Russia to invade and occupy Tbilisi and Batumi.  Such an invasion might not trigger organized military opposition as Putin flunkies already in charge. 

It is  much more likely Georgia Dream party loses parliamentary elections in 2026 and Putin invades then 

 


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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

‘They Are Erasing Streets’: Russian Attacks Bring War Nearer Kharkiv https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/11/world/europe/ukraine-russia-kharkiv.html?unlocked_article_code=1.rE0.5hvC.dflhxMRrgWBM

This is a gift from my NYT subscription to you.

...offensive is unlikely to reach the streets of Kharkiv. The Ukrainian military has built elaborate defenses around the city — digging miles of trenches and sewing the landscape with glistening razor wire, mines and countless small cement pyramids that block tanks — “dragons’ teeth,” as the soldiers here call them.

So they do have a Surovkin Line in a concentric circle facing North towards Belgorad. And northeast.

Russia could proceed as much as a kilometer a day as Ukrainian troops retreat towards Kiev.

So the Ukrainians execute a strategic retreat  against a complex combined assault 

I am assuming that they wll be successful and retreat in good order evacuating civilians as they retreat to Izium. First Russia occupied Izium then imprisoned and tortured the residents

Somehow with little or no Western assistance they uses their old Soviet tanks.

Now these residents certainly do not wish to be occupied by Russia again.

So within 30 days most of Kharkiv will be under constant artillery bombardment with shells produced by DPRK  and drones supplied by Iran.

At that point when they begin close artillery attack on civilians and military targets  within the concentric defenses  without missiles or  smart bombardment

That is an attack on Kharkiv from my viewpoint. 


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Plataea479
made a comment:

Please do. 

I suggest resolution would be when Russia starts pounding Kharkiv with field artillery like early in the war. Ru is 15 miles from 25 mile range.

But given the degree of fighting and the fact 

2 axes attack toward Kharkiv, it's more than a reconnaissance in force.

Institute for Study of War have so far reserved using major offensive operations criteria. I expect that today about 2.00 pm EST time they will.

At this part of the front  in Kharkiv oblast Ru can be resupplied easily via Belgorod. The Governor of Belgorad claimed Ukraine blew up a apartment there today.

Had Ukraine been resupplied with ammo Himars and had ATACMS it could easily disrupt the logistics.


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New Prediction

Fragmented reports suggest that Ukrainians are in battle along 2 axes in Kharkiv oblast. Ukrainian commanding General says situation difficult. Difficult was used daily as an adjective in the Battle  for Adhivka and Bakhmut.

This could develop into the primary axis of attack if Russians can exploit its 10 to 1 artillery advantage and 5 to 1 manpower.


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New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
71% (+1%)
Yes
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024
29% (-1%)
No
May 10, 2024 to Nov 10, 2024

The Israeli military says that it has finished a series of exercises “simulating war in Lebanon” as it “continues enhancing readiness and preparation for various combat scenarios in the north”.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/10/israel-hamas-war-latest-news-us-weapons-rafah/

Meanwhile property values have plummeted in Kiryat Shamoma. I would like to move there per Jerusalem Post only 2 sales since October because it's next to Lebanese border all housing units have safe rooms and are under daily assault. https://m.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/real-estate/article-799916

Gallant has wanted to invade Lebanon from the beginning of the war. Netanyahu’s interest is in expanding the war.to defer elections. And he wants to repair his tarnished security reputation so Likud will win more seats at next elections. Identical motive for Gallant.

Gantz is the key player as he and his party would win the most seats in the Knesset if elections held today. And if new elections occur all 3 have motive opportunity and more than sufficient reason to invade Lebanon.

There are actually communities in the Galilee area who threaten to secede from Israel such are  the natural feelings of  these Israeli citizens who have been forced to vacate a sizeable area in the North 

https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-800692

Sitting in hotels sitting with relatives all feel Netanyahu’s abandoned them by not committed to their return by Sept. 1.

The most basic and primal fear of Israelis is being forced to abandon homes to invading Arabs and pushed into Mediterranean. Ironic that Netanyahu’s actions have degraded any possibility of a Palestinian state by the aggressive settlement policies and wars in Gaza.

In any event, this Is the next logical step after Gaza finished to insurgency level.

Israelis are methodical. Yesterday they ceased the Philadelphi corridor from Ker es Shalom to Rafa crossing.

Today IDF seized the main road bisecting Rafah and started locating and demolishing tunnel entrance shafts. It's just a matter of months until Sinwar flushed and hostages and their remains returned.

Next step invading Lebanon to the Litani River and permanently occupy  the security corridor  which they occupied after their last 2 invasions 

Why would Israel want to fight a war in Lebanon and have an ongoing  3 front conflict with 2 insurgencies.

Because the north of Israel must be  reoccupied the war must be fought for existential political and security considerations.

These are the days of Awe from Holocaust Memorial Day to Independence Day and the Military Memorial Day where Memories of the foundation of Israel, stimulate maximum psychological resonance for patriotic declarations. https://youtu.be/wX6Mk0HndLs?si=IIs5O-lS13ZMjpc-

Smooth Netanyahu info op for the mass US audience 

Israel was attacked on 4 sides by its neighbors and Iraq. It was touch and go. Israel had no military aid and was actually subject to a weapons embargo and they prevailed. Israel survived and the rest is history.

Netanyahu for personal political survival and staying out of jail has a special motivation for invading Lebanon. Gantz and Gallant are the only plausible successors. They each have political motivation.

All have a common interest in restoration of the citizens to Northern Israel.

In 6 months the US has an election. the very real  possibility of a Trump victory gives The Israeli War Cabinet and IDF the maximum opportunity to free Lance

Now that the US has cut off the delivery of 2000lb bombs and GPS kits, there is no way Israel can start or finish Iranian nuclear sites.

As I predict Gaza will be reduced to an ongoing insurgency with disorganized resistance and no missiles in 2 months, I predict invasion will occur between August and the US Presidential election.

And I think Israel initiates without telling US 



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Over 

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New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
100% (+93%)
Kharkiv
1% (+1%)
Kyiv
0% (0%)
Odesa

Russia has attacked a town near Kharkiv in one of its only cross-border attacks since its 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The surprise dawn attack on the border town of Vovchansk near Kharkiv comes as Moscow intensifies its offensive ahead of a US weapons deal to resupply Ukraine.

Videos on social media showed Russian forces firing a barrage of Soviet-designed Grad missiles towards Vovchansk, which lies only 45 miles from Kharkiv.

Russian Telegram channels also said there was an attempted breakthrough by ground forces but Ukrainian military commanders said they had repelled the assault.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/10/russia-launches-first-cross-border-attack-ukraine/

I should have gone with my original assessment

Although this is likely to be an attack meant to fix a portion of Ukrainian troops away from the main objective of Chasiv Yar and Kramatorsk which would leave Ukrainian resupply rail subject to assault.

In fact. there has been a crossing of the border from the North and Ru currently is 40 miles from Kharkiv. 2 years ago they were 25 miles away.

www.skynews.com reports an an assault on Kharkiv.

Unless some other forecaster suggests otherwise I suggest that this resolved 

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New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
51% (-19%)
Yes
May 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025
49% (+19%)
No
May 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025

Former NSC Chairman and former General McMasters now at Stanford says Iran will be at war in 1 year. http://www.skynews.com interview.

He points to Irans rapid accumulation of enriched nuclear fuel and ballistic missiles as a reason for the likelihood of war in a year.

The recent trade mission of DPRK to Tehran underlines the increasing importance of DPRK as the arsenal of autocracy in Russia and Iran 

so any war would at least involve Russia and DPRK as allies of the axis of evil in conventional weapons and perhaps ready made  nukes and ballistics and miniaturization.

And in any prolonged Iran Israel war the United States and UK will be involved in the air and the sea where together they have more than air supremacy. Total dominance without one boot on the ground and use of airbases in UAE and Quatar and KSA not necessary.

The precipitating cause could be Israels incursion into Rafah https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/42723748-9e05-4d2e-ae86-648430caafb1?shareToken=2d05c67a68affcfd3deabcfd1ea78625

The map and game plan of Israel in Rafah. Thank you to Times of London Defense Correspondent. Either limited like Philadelphi corridor and Gaza from Shalom crossing to Rafah crossing and onto sea.

But Iran promised to attack Israel if it went into Rafah and Netanyahu will do everything possible to provoke a war between Iran and Israel as long as he is in power

But even without Netanyahu,  US and UK are looking for an opportunity to derisk Iran nuclear threat.

if Trump is elected there will be US war with Israel against Iran.

i was at 71 too high after Iran  300 missile attack but the reason i am moderating this assessment, is that Biden is so risk averse that by temperament he will not do. Maybe he would consider if Iran blocked Straits of Hormuz and Bab Mandib.

Trump is substantially certain to attack Iran asap. His former NSC Chairman Bolton has been urging this course to prevent Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. There has been military planning for such an attack since Bush Cheney 

if Trump elected he will do.

Trump is 50 percent likely to be President next January. If he is President i am substantially certain 75 percent that he with Israel will conduct a preemptive assault on Iran WMD 

Biden is 50 percent likely to be President but such a war would only be 20 percent if reelected.

Thats 50 percenf probability. I am adding one percent to make a call here that is sound and realistic discounted or enhanced for political risk 

Israel with some combination of allies.

Iran with extensive Russian PRC and DPRK support sent via rail and road completely insulated from air and missile interdiction.

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Plataea479
made a comment:

Thanks you are very gracious.

I have a really bad feeling about this really bad. To paraphrase what Foreign Secretary Grey said as he exited 10 Downing Street as he exited 10 Downing Street one late night in 191

The lights are going out all over Europe. I don't think we shall see them on again in our time.

Quote is paraphrase from Guns of August by Barbara Tuchman.

I tried to create a Venn Diagram 

Israel 

V.

Iran and Hezbollah and Houthis and Iraqi Shiite militias.

US  UK and NATO and Ukraine 

V

Russia Iran DPRK 

And US Japan ROK Australia New Zealand Taiwan 

V. PRC DPRK Ru 

Then 

Geography 

Climate 

Economics 

History 

Culture 

Psychology 

And although unfinished the Venn Diagram points in one direction: imminent war between Israel and Iran which could lead to an all out confrontation in Ukraine and Taiwan Straits.

However due to the amazing panoply of resources embedded in our Seventh Fleet, our long rate artillery now in Northern Phillipines, there is little chance of PRC piling in, 

There already is a World War III in conventional military terms in terms of WWII shocking losses to civilians 

Pearl Harbor 

Dresden 

Berlin April May 1945 

Hiroshima and Nagasaki 

Compare to 

Mosul 

Mariupol 

Gaza 

At the beginning after October 7, I totally sympathized with Israel 

As October passed into January I became convinced that Netanyahu was a war criminal and that genocide of a sort was occurring in the West Bank and Gaza for the explicit purpose of removing the noble long suffering Palestinian People from their long deprived and UN promised state of Palestine. From the beginning from partition of UK mandate into Israel and Palestine, these 2 states were designed to co exist as 2 separate States one dominated by the Israelis the  other by Palestinian Arabs.

Now I regret to admit I was wrong about Netanyahu.

With or without the right wing extremists any potential Israeli PM whether Gallant Gantz Naftali Bennett even Ehud Barak and Rabin would have been forced into exactly the same shocking sequence, Gaza City Khan Younis and now Rafah.  The gruesome events of October 7 and the nature of Sinwar and Hamas deeply embedded in hospitals mosque and civilian refugees made charges of genocide inevitable.

Hamas has used women and children as human shields. I'm not attacking Al Jazeera or other broadcasters like Sky News using Gazan reporters as a necessity. Never has a war been broadcast 24 7 all over the world.

We see images Hamas wants us to see reported accurately enough visually but lacking context. As a result a majority of US Democratic voters believe Israel committed genocide already.

Like Sherman Said War is Hell!  You can still see evidence of the almost 50 mile wall  of devastation that he created from Chattanooga Tenn through Atlanta to Savannah and a lot of innocent women and children died within it.

Today I saw President Biden at his weakest and least compelling. Somehow he discussed the size of candy bars and shrinkflation before immediately turning to genocide in Gaza and pausing some weapons shipments.

https://youtu.be/4P1E9iKf__Q?si=Ql4JvKBph8MDld77

As with Tanks and planes ATACMS and ammunition for Ukraine,too little too late. The train has already left the station. That option was viable in December and January not now.

It may well be that Israel is committing genocide on the West Bank based on the ACLED Data  and UN convention  criteria . I am going to take a look at that. It's urgent.

But the IDF war in Gaza is not genocide by definition. We have to be very very careful in using that term. It's become what conservative thinkers call virtue signaling.

I am analyzing Gaza in the Venn Diagram discussed above.

President Biden is sending the wrong signal at the wrong time. Does he want  mutual recognition   by Israel and Saudi Arabia and their commitment to a President state. Does he want the support of Egypt and Jordan as well?

These countries and their autocratic rulers hate Hamas and want it destroyed whatever the cost. Hamas is antithetical to their survival as rules and their visions of a prosperity and Just future.

Whatever these governments may say, they want Hamas destroyed, Sinwar dead, the hostages or their remains set free and most of all Iran deterred from developing nuclear weapons and threatening their nations.

Bidens interview was a disaster. He looked old. Erin Burnett was the perfect interviewer for him and while not his worst performance was far from the best. 

Biden just sent the wrong message to all the nations listed in the Venn Diagram.

American support of its allies must be steadfast and consistent or we won't have allies. And unless we consistently support our allies with the support they need to survive and thrive, we won't deter our adversaries at all.

President Biden likes to use the term ironclad to characterize our commitment to NATO. Ukraine, the ROK, Japan and Israel. In fact our support of Ukraine is certainly not ironclad. And now Israel is victimized by Biden at the worst possible time for domestic political reasons.

Please. I want the war in Gaza to end now. I want a free and independent Palestinian state. I want a non nuclear Iran. I want a US Saudi Israel strategic alliance against the axis of evil,especially Iran and Russia and DPRK. 

So I share President Bidens objectives. His Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense are outstanding. Being President  of US is   the most difficult job in the world. Biden means well. It's always easier to criticize.

But I really fear his vacillation on ironclad support for Israel appears weak to allies and adversaries alike.

As a result of Obama Biden policies ever since Assad and Putin wilfully ignored Obamas redline against use of chemical weapons in 2014 in Syria, we are closer to a full scale WWIII than at any time since World War II. Its already a full scale hybrid war of global dimensions the world has never seen 

It was not a coincidence that immediately after the Biden interview was broadcast that Iran took the time to rebroadcast their threats of nuclear weapons 

Just as Hamas learned from Iran and Hezbollah the  barbaric seizure of hostages and brutal terrorist attacks on soft targets, Iran has learned from Putin and Russia, the utility of nuclear threats in a multi dimension hybrid world War.

Is it just a coincidence that literally a few hours after CNN broadcast of Biden interview, Iran threatened to change its nuclear strategy?

I may be living literally for now on the best beach in Turkiye, but I am unequivocally proud to be an American, one of very few here.

I fear for my country. Where is the bipartisan consensus that used to animate our foreign policy from Truman and Vandenberg to Biden and McConnell. Will it ever be Morning in America again.? Will we ever live up to our mission as Albright said as the indispensable nation? 

Its not just a Democratic problem. It's a Republican problem. Since the inception of the Bush II administration its been mistake after mistake. While there have been notable successes like PEPFAR, the return of Democratic rule throughout South and Central America, and many USAid programs, US relations with our allies in Asia and NATO, we totally failed in Iraq and Afghanistan.

We appear to be on the brink of failure and forever wars in Ukraine, and  around Israel appear inevitable. 





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New Prediction
Plataea479
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
52% (-19%)
Yes
May 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025
48% (+19%)
No
May 8, 2024 to May 8, 2025

If Trump wins its more likely than not that Israel will wage a preemptive war on Iran nuclear facilities which will entail war with Hezbollah.

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