74th
Accuracy Rank

ansantillan

Andrés Santillán Reich
About:

Just graduated from university. I am currently an advisor on parliamentary diplomacy in the Mexican Senate. Interested in geopolitics mainly, however, I have growing interests in blockchain technology and new innovative techs. Trying to learn from the best.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will China sign an official agreement on establishing a future military base in the Pacific Ocean before December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 26, 2021 04:49PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jul 26, 2021 04:49PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 04, 2021 06:33PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 19, 2021 09:11PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 59% Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73% Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80% Answer was incorrect
More than 80% Answer was correct

[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2021 02:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
0-10% Answer was incorrect
10-20% Answer was incorrect
20-30% Answer was incorrect
30-40% Answer was correct
40-50% Answer was incorrect
50-60% Answer was incorrect
60-70% Answer was incorrect
70-80% Answer was incorrect
80-90% Answer was incorrect
90-100% Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Nov 16, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 29, 2021 01:06AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $400 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion Answer was correct
More than $775 billion Answer was incorrect

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?

As of Jan 28, 2022 02:45AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 31, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 28, 2021 02:45AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 22, 2022 09:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 20, 2022 05:38PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 33.0 Answer was incorrect
Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5 Answer was correct
Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 39.0 Answer was incorrect

What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 21, 2022 06:40PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30 (good reputation) Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 40, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50 Answer was incorrect
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60 Answer was incorrect
More than 60 (bad reputation) Answer was incorrect

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 27, 2022 06:28PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct
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