INFER Public

From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 17, 2023 01:26PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 200		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 200 but less than 400		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 400 but less than 600		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 600 but less than 800		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 800 but less than 1000		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 1000		Answer was incorrect

Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2023 02:07PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 22, 2023 03:19PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2023 02:03PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Japan		Answer was correct
The Netherlands		Answer was correct
South Korea		Answer was incorrect
Any other country not listed		Answer was incorrect

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2023 02:05PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 20		Answer was incorrect
Between 20 and 29, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 39, inclusive		Answer was correct
Between 40 and 49, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 50		Answer was incorrect

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2023 02:48PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 24, 2023 01:10PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Intel Corporation		Answer was correct
IBM Corporation		Answer was incorrect
BrainChip Holdings Ltd.		Answer was incorrect
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.		Answer was incorrect

From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(10 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2023 06:04PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 31, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(9 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 21, 2023 02:44PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(7 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 03, 2023 02:50PM UTC
(8 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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