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Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea between August 1, 2021 and March 31, 2022?

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 22, 2021 08:49PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 22, 2021 09:34PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 23, 2021 10:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 800		Answer was incorrect
Between 800 and 4,000		Answer was correct
More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 100,000		Answer was incorrect

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2021 03:25PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2021 05:41PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 09:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 3%		Answer was correct
Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 7.5%		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 06, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2021 08:28PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Feb 1, 2022 09:42AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2022 09:42AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2022 09:43AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 (good reputation)		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 40, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50		Answer was incorrect
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60		Answer was incorrect
More than 60 (bad reputation)		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Feb 1, 2022 09:43AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2022 09:43AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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