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Eli Lifland
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Forecasted Questions
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What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2020 04:15PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 0.07 Answer was incorrect
Between 0.07 and 0.08 Answer was incorrect
More than 0.08 but less than or equal to 0.09 Answer was incorrect
More than 0.09 but less than or equal to 0.1 Answer was incorrect
More than 0.1 Answer was correct

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in the first half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 15, 2020 04:22PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $3.9 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $3.9 billion but less than or equal to $4.5 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $4.5 billion and $5.1 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between $5.1 billion and $5.7 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $5.7 billion Answer was correct

What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 22, 2020 03:31AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $260 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $260 billion and $300 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $300 billion but less than or equal to $340 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $340 billion but less than or equal to $380 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $380 billion Answer was correct

How much new funding will facial recognition companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 29, 2020 05:35PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $200 million Answer was correct
More than $200 million but less than or equal to $500 million Answer was incorrect
Between $500 million and $800 million, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $800 million but less than or equal to $1.1 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $1.1 billion Answer was incorrect

What percentage of AI papers posted on arXiv will be in the field of computer vision between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 05, 2020 08:55PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 30% Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 33%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 33% but less than or equal to 36% Answer was correct
More than 36% but less than or equal to 39% Answer was incorrect
More than 39% Answer was incorrect

What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2020 02:17AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $20 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $30 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $30 billion and $40 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $50 billion, inclusive Answer was correct
More than $50 billion Answer was incorrect

What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 20, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Dec 13, 2020 02:20AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 20% Answer was incorrect
Between 20% and 25%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 25% but less than or equal to 30% Answer was correct
More than 30% but less than or equal to 35% Answer was incorrect
More than 35% Answer was incorrect

What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 16, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 14, 2021 02:00AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $20 Answer was incorrect
Between $20 and $100, inclusive Answer was correct
More than $100 but less than or equal to $300 Answer was incorrect
More than $300 but less than or equal to $500 Answer was incorrect
More than $500 but less than or equal to $1000 Answer was incorrect
More than $1000 Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 22, 2021 04:13PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 2% Answer was correct
Between 2% and 3.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 3.5% but less than or equal to 5% Answer was incorrect
More than 5% but less than or equal to 6.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 6.5% Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Mar 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 22, 2021 04:15PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $400 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $480 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $480 billion but less than or equal to $560 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $560 billion but less than or equal to $640 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $640 billion Answer was correct
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