22nd
Accuracy Rank

martinsluis

About:
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-0.275969

Relative Brier Score

1060

Forecasts

46

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 43 156 2494 1060 2823
Comments 0 4 29 7 39
Questions Forecasted 32 36 103 55 111
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 10 144 46 152
 Definitions
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 27th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Aug 15, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Jul 15, 2024 to Jan 15, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Jul 15, 2024 to Jan 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 19th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Aug 15, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11% (-1%)
Yes
Jul 15, 2024 to Jan 15, 2025
89% (+1%)
No
Jul 15, 2024 to Jan 15, 2025

Don't think so

Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Moldova
1% (0%)
Armenia
4% (0%)
Georgia
1% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

New leadership is said to be moderate, which might decrease the likelihood of Iran leaving JCPOA which, in any case, should already be very low.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 17th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Oct 15, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9% (0%)
Yes
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 15, 2025
91% (0%)
No
Jul 15, 2024 to Jul 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Small adjustment

Files
New Prediction
martinsluis
made their 45th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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