martinsluis

As of March 20th (about 7 weeks ago), the excel file suggests 28 fatalities (Battles, Violence against civilians and Strategic development) while the ACLED dashboard counts 40 for the same period, so one must forecast this question taking into account this added uncertainty.

From June 1st to May 3rd, (338 days and about 92% of the time frame) I infer 43 fatalities from the ACLED data (last week = 41), which if extrapolated, points to bin 1 with about 46,6 fatalities (last week = 45,3).

As a result of all these considerations, I feel that bin 1 and 2 should be about 80/20 if one only considers the ACLED dashboard, but since the trend has been towards bin 1 and the excel file (which will be used for resolution) points to a lower figure, I'm over-weighing under 50.

As of May 3rd, the current rate is 381 events in 338 days (about 92% of the time frame), which if extrapolated, computes to about 413 (last week = 415).

Up until now the rate has been about 1,13 events per day and in order for this question to resolve above 500 the rate for the remainder of time has to be, on average, above 4,25 (last week = 3,57).

Reaffirming.

As of May 3rd, the current rate is 2 274 events in 338 days (about 92% of the time frame), which if extrapolated, computes to about 2 462 (last week = 2 424).

Up until now the rate has been about 6,73 events per day (last week = 6,62) and in order for this question to resolve outside bin 4 the rate for the remainder of time has to be, on average, above 25,93 (last week = 23,08). It seams to me that bin 3 and 5 are all but impossible. 

Reaffirming, 

I'm starting to think that Israel will only accept a cease fire when there is nobody left to sign ...

Kharkiv, mainly due to its proximity and Odessa for its strategic value seam plausible targets this year. I think Kyiv is safe for now as it is well defended and the new fighters should help.

Adjusting to perceived geopolitical changes

Adjusting

No new update this week. Latest update is still from April, 26th.

Reaffirming.