Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
10
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 10 | 67 | 10 | 67 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 10 | 35 | 13 | 35 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Definitions |

New Prediction
Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month?

Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(+0%)
Yes
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Less than or equal to 5
88%
Between 6 and 7, inclusive
11%
More than or equal to 8
Tsinghua University, ranked 13th
Peking University, ranked 18th
Zhejiang University, ranked 26th
Fudan University, ranked 29th
Shanghai Jiao Tong University, ranked 38th
Beijing Institute of Technology, ranked 50th
Harbin Institute of Technology, ranked 61st
Nanjing University, ranked 63rd
University of Science and Technology of China, ranked 66th
Tongji University, ranked 71st
Currently 10 uni's in top 100, ranking varies year by year and this list might be changed in the future based on the research, funding, and other factors.
The number should, though stay mostly between 6-10
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
Less than 5
38%
Between 5 and 11, inclusive
16%
Between 12 and 17, inclusive
1%
More than or equal to 18
starting out
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
Can and should take place, to establish power - may be biased but a high chance of them happening
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
Less than 6,000
30%
Between 6,000 and 6,999, inclusive
24%
Between 7,000 and 7,999, inclusive
15%
Between 8,000 and 8,999, inclusive
3%
More than or equal to 9,000
basis last year stats, looking at a similar stat
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+0%)
Intel
100%
(+0%)
Samsung
100%
(+0%)
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(+0%)
IBM Corporation
54%
(+10%)
BrainChip Holdings Ltd.
26%
(-10%)
Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.
update
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+0%)
0
45%
(+0%)
1
45%
(+0%)
2
9%
(+0%)
More than or equal to 3
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
(+0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files