42nd
Accuracy Rank

thsavage

About:
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-0.012795

Relative Brier Score

147

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 15 27 423 147 1247
Comments 0 1 9 2 80
Questions Forecasted 15 18 56 26 195
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 24 3 72
 Definitions
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Aug 23, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7% (-2%)
Yes
May 23, 2024 to May 23, 2025
93% (+2%)
No
May 23, 2024 to May 23, 2025

Aligning with the crowd. For now, it doesn't seem like the helicopter crash has affected Khamenei's position. 

Files
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 10th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
6% (+2%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
94% (-2%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

Hedging slightly, don't want to be overconfident. If the stockpile is reduced even slightly, that would put it in the third bin. 

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New Prediction
thsavage
made their 10th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Aug 23, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024

Confirming previous forecast. No change in conditions, and the crowd is also basically at zero. 

Files
New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast. There's only about a week left and even with more time, I don't think this would happen. 

Files
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Jun 23, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12% (+1%)
Yes
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024
88% (-1%)
No
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024

Increasing slightly due to additional uncertainty in the wake of the helicopter crash that killed Iran's president. That may present an additional opportunity or impetus for a large protest, although I don't see anything specific like this happening at the moment. 

Files
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 9th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Jun 23, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8% (0%)
Yes
May 23, 2024 to Jun 23, 2024
92% (0%)
No
May 23, 2024 to Jun 23, 2024

Confirming previous forecast. I don't think much has changed recently, although I wonder if the helicopter crash with Iran's president may affect this? I don't think it may have a huge effect on this specifically, but if a high-level government official dies suddenly it can make things a bit more chaotic and uncertain in general. 

Files
New Prediction
thsavage
made their 7th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Jun 23, 2024
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024
95% (0%)
No
May 23, 2024 to Nov 23, 2024

Confirming previous forecast. Still in low but nonzero territory and it's possible there will be enough progress in the next 6 months for this to happen. 

Files
New Prediction
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New Prediction

Confirming previous forecast

Files
New Prediction

Passage of time and just 2 weeks left to go. The capability to do this with text is just not there 

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