Confirming previous forecast
-0.282673
Relative Brier Score
214
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 24 | 418 | 214 | 1314 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 88 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 23 | 64 | 39 | 208 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 3 | 17 | 6 | 75 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
97%
(0%)
Yes
3%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
69%
(-9%)
Yes
31%
(+9%)
No
Just going with the crowd on this one
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
48%
(0%)
Yes
52%
(0%)
No
Staying where I am because there are a few things that would make me increase slightly and a few that would go in the opposite direction and in my view they pretty much balance each other out for the time being.
In favor of a ceasefire, Harris seems to be more pro-ceasefire than Biden, but barring Biden resigning or dying before his term is up, Harris won't be the president before this Q is over. I would put that probability at only 2-3%. The news from Sec. Blinken would also make me increase slightly, another 2-3%.
On the flip side, there's the passage of time and the lack of anything materializing despite lots of talk for several months now. These two factors would make me decrease by about 5%, the same as the increase from above.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirming previous forecast. There is still almost an entire year to go, so not dropping to 1% yet.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-1%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2024 to Jul 20, 2025
96%
(+1%)
No
Jul 20, 2024 to Jul 20, 2025
Updating slightly with the crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
(-3%)
Yes
29%
(+3%)
No
Decreasing a little due to passage of time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
100%
(+1%)
No
Jul 20, 2024 to Jan 20, 2025
Moving down to zero, as it looks like the crowd is p < 0.005. The news from the ICJ today as well.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
3%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
97%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Continues to look very unlikely, but we're still far enough out that I don't want to decrease yet
Files
Confirming previous forecast, no major changes