INFER Public

How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 26, 2021 12:03AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 800		Answer was incorrect
Between 800 and 4,000		Answer was correct
More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 100,000		Answer was incorrect

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 26, 2021 12:04AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between September 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 31, 2021 10:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 27, 2021 09:44AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 05, 2021 06:19PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 7,500		Answer was incorrect
Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500		Answer was incorrect
More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500		Answer was incorrect
More than 13,500		Answer was incorrect

What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 16, 2021 05:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2021 12:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $400 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion		Answer was correct
More than $775 billion		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 06, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2021 12:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will the United States have the world's fastest supercomputer in June 2022?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 15, 2022 03:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2022 12:25PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Feb 12, 2022 06:46PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2022 06:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months?

As of Feb 12, 2022 06:46PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2022 06:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 12, 2022 06:46PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 (good reputation)		Answer was incorrect
Between 30 and 40, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 40 but less than or equal to 50		Answer was incorrect
More than 50 but less than or equal to 60		Answer was incorrect
More than 60 (bad reputation)		Answer was incorrect

yagudin

misha

About: