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What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jan 13, 2021 10:51PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 15% Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19% Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21% Answer was incorrect
More than 21% Answer was incorrect

How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 16, 2021 05:14PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $40 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $100 billion Answer was correct

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 16, 2021 05:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $13 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $25 billion Answer was correct

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Feb 25, 2021 05:58PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $470 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $680 billion Answer was correct

How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 19, 2021 02:48PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 7,500 Answer was incorrect
Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500 Answer was incorrect
More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500 Answer was incorrect
More than 13,500 Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 19, 2021 02:49PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 3% Answer was correct
Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6% Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 7.5% Answer was incorrect

How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 26, 2021 04:22PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 70,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 130,000 Answer was correct

What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 03, 2021 04:49PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $5 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $5 billion but less than or equal to $6 billion Answer was correct
Between $6 billion and $7 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between $7 billion and $8 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $8 billion Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 06, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 10, 2021 04:51PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was correct

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 May 11, 2021 03:11PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 26,000 Answer was correct
Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 32,000 Answer was incorrect
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