gcahlik

I'm going to go against the team consensus. 

With indications of Russia preparing for a new summer offensive for June 2024 (although thescale and intensity is unclear, as https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-26-2024  )  I think it is plausible that they may attack civilian infrastructure (with their usual level of precision and concern for collateral damage), especially ahead of western resupply of materiel, to draw air defenses away from the front line. 

While, there have been no attacks that have resulted in this many casualties, 100 civilians "killed or injured" is a relatively low number and all long range weapons fielded by Russia are capable of imposing such a strike.  Bearing this in mind, I think the possibility of meeting this mark, whether intentional or not, is not out of the reasonable bounds of possibility.

I am not sure if it matters much, but given the lack of concern given to collateral damage in Gaza by Western countries, Russia might use it as a justification for their own posture going forward; this would fall in line with traditional Russian methods of manipulation of public opinion.  Ukraine may also inflate the number of injured in order to use any potential strike to their advantage -- especially as concerns of support is waning (in particularly the United States, ahead of the national elections). 

minor update to account for passage of time