49th
Accuracy Rank

gcahlik

About:

Former Investigative Analyst for a Federal agency, now working as a trade compliance specialist for a nonprofit research and development institute.

Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies graduate, MA International Relations, Russian and Eurasian studies concentration. University of Texas at San Antonio graduate, BA Economics, Political Science, minor in Russian

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All Time Stats

2.026511

Relative Brier Score

643

Forecasts

111

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 9 335 103 643
Comments 0 1 39 8 103
Questions Forecasted 0 9 89 43 168
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 52 3 111
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Science & Technology, Iran: Threats & Influence, Artificial Intelligence, Russia-Ukraine War

Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy, Iran Nuclear Program, Iran-VNSAs, Future Bowl, Microelectronics

New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
gcahlik made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?

 A direct confrontation initiated from Russia is highly unlikely based on the stalemate in Ukraine and lack of resources at a strategic and tactical level. 

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Why might you be wrong?
An unlikely but possible scenario is using asymmetric/covert and clandestine warfare and Belarus as a proxy to goad a response from any one of the bordering Baltic countries, eliciting a potential use of conventional force from Russia, but as it stands, still a very unlikely scenario.
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New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
gcahlik made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (+100%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
0% (-100%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Most likely already occurred
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New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
gcahlik made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Apr 2, 2024 to Apr 2, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
gcahlik earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
New Badge
gcahlik earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Mar 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction

I'm going conservatively at 65% as the publication and grading criterion shapes out; the " discovered on or before 31 December 2024." seems to be a sticking point.

Files
New Prediction
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
gcahlik made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
85% (+30%)
Less than or equal to 49
15% (-25%)
Between 50 and 99, inclusive
0% (-5%)
Between 100 and 149, inclusive
0% (0%)
Between 150 and 199, inclusive
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 200

Major update given passage of time -- I have not been tracking this one that well. 

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New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
gcahlik made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
90%
No
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024

Comment deleted on Mar 31, 2024 11:55PM UTC

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