49th
Accuracy Rank

gcahlik

About:

Former Investigative Analyst for a Federal agency, now working as a trade compliance specialist for a nonprofit research and development institute.

Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies graduate, MA International Relations, Russian and Eurasian studies concentration. University of Texas at San Antonio graduate, BA Economics, Political Science, minor in Russian

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2024 Season Stats

1.041436

Relative Brier Score

120

Forecasts

3

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 17 26 352 120 660
Comments 0 1 39 8 103
Questions Forecasted 17 26 89 44 168
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 52 3 111
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
gcahlik made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
gcahlik made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
100% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
gcahlik made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
2023 Q2
0% (0%)
2023 Q3
0% (0%)
2023 Q4
0% (0%)
2024 Q1
0% (0%)
2024 Q2
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
gcahlik made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (0%)
Yes
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
80% (0%)
No
Apr 29, 2024 to Oct 29, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
gcahlik made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
10% (0%)
Yes
90% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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