Confirmed previous forecast
5.296084
Relative Brier Score
246
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 29 | 36 | 308 | 118 | 639 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 59 |
| Questions Forecasted | 29 | 36 | 66 | 43 | 131 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 21 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Apr 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024
91%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
50%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
50%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
89%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
16%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
84%
(0%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files