Forecasted Questions
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 55% | +5% | -5% |
| No | 40% | 45% | -5% | +5% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 21% | 9% | +12% | +2% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 8% | 11% | -3% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 2% | 2% | +0% | 0% |
| Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Apr 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2024 | May 8, 2024 | 11% | -11% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Apr 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2024 | May 8, 2024 | 89% | +11% | +1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Apr 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2024 | May 8, 2024 | 6% | -6% | +5% |
| No | 100% | Apr 8, 2024 to Oct 8, 2024 | May 8, 2024 | 94% | +6% | -5% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Apr 08, 2024 10:31PM UTC
(25 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | 4% | +13% | -1% |
| No | 83% | 96% | -13% | +1% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(28 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 07:14PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 07:14PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 07:16PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 07:16PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 07:51PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 07:51PM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 20% | 18% | +2% | -2% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 1% | 6% | -5% | +2% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |