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Aadebamiwa77

Abidemi Adebamiwa
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Forecasted Questions
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Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:02PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2024 6%
No 100% Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 Jul 30, 2024 94%

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:03PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 4% Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 May 30, 2024 12%
No 96% Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 May 30, 2024 88%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:04PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 85% 81%
No 15% 19%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 49 53% 96%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive 7% 4%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive 12% 0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive 19% 0%
More than or equal to 200 9% 0%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 11%
No 50% 89%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 4% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 35% 1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 6% 4%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 55% 95%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 4%
No 96% 96%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 2%
No 97% 98%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 3%
No 50% 97%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Apr 30, 2024 08:51PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%
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