INFER Public

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2023 05:35PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q4	1%	0%	+1%	-1%
2024 Q1	2%	1%	+1%	-1%
2024 Q2	3%	1%	+2%	-1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2023 04:47PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	27%	94%	-67%	+63%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	49%	5%	+44%	-42%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	21%	0%	+21%	-15%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	2%	0%	+2%	-4%
More than or equal to 200	1%	0%	+1%	-1%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2023 05:00PM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 499	24%	99%	-75%	+70%
Between 500 and 999, inclusive	70%	1%	+69%	-61%
Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive	3%	0%	+3%	-6%
Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive	1%	0%	+1%	-3%
More than or equal to 2000	2%	0%	+2%	-1%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2023 01:39AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	1%	+4%	-5%
No	95%	99%	-4%	+5%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2023 01:49AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	60%	14%	+46%	-38%
No	40%	86%	-46%	+38%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 23, 2023 01:57AM UTC
(11 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	5%	+0%	-25%
No	95%	95%	+0%	+25%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 15, 2023 02:05PM UTC
(10 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	-2%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+2%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 26, 2023 06:48PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
Oman	2%	2%	+0%	-1%
Qatar	0%	2%	-2%	-2%
Saudi Arabia	5%	5%	+0%	-1%
Tunisia	2%	1%	+1%	-3%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2023 01:58PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	10%	9%	+1%	-6%
Su-35 fighter jets	20%	11%	+9%	-4%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 05, 2023 02:40PM UTC
(9 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	8%	4%	+4%	-9%
No	92%	96%	-4%	+9%

ncm

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