66th
Accuracy Rank

Pramila

About:
Show more

0.70715

Relative Brier Score

128

Forecasts

23

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 6 30 409 128 912
Comments 0 0 4 2 6
Questions Forecasted 6 30 82 41 166
Upvotes on Comments By This User 3 4 58 23 105
 Definitions
New Badge
Pramila
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Apr 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Pramila
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (-23%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024
95% (+23%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to May 30, 2024

There is a threatens to erupt into a wider war, particularly since Iran’s unprecedented direct attack against Israel on 13 April 2024 in response to Israel’s bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria on 1 April. So, it is unlikely that Iraq will return its ambassadors to Iran.

Files
New Prediction

Passage of time

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Iran claims its nuclear program is only for civilian use, pointing to the fatwa. However, experts say there is no civilian application for uranium enriched to that level, and Iran has been known to ramp up nuclear activity to flex its muscles during times of increased tensions with the West. [1]

[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/un-nuclear-chief-iran-weeks-not-months-from-enough-uranium-to-make-a-bomb/

Files
New Prediction
Pramila
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
5% (0%)
Kuwait
4% (0%)
Oman
3% (0%)
Qatar
2% (0%)
Saudi Arabia
3% (0%)
Tunisia
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Pramila
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (-6%)
Yes
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024
98% (+6%)
No
Apr 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2024

In an effort to advance normalization with Israel, Saudi Arabia faces muted but significant public opposition, which has been exacerbated following the war in Gaza. The popular rejection takes many forms: There is a religious dimension, which views a peace with Israel as contrary to Islamic law; a pro-Palestinian dimension, which regards opposition to normalization as a demonstration of support for the Palestinians; and a liberal perspective, which cautions that ties with Israel could empower the Saudi regime to further violate human rights. [1]

[1] https://www.inss.org.il/publication/saudi-public-opinion/

Files
New Prediction

“We are as committed as ever to the lab and the world-class research of this team,” Mr Peter Lee, who leads Microsoft Research, a network of eight labs across the world, said in a statement. Using the lab’s formal name, he added: “There has been no discussion or advocacy to close Microsoft Research Asia, and we look forward to continuing our research agenda.” [1]

[1] https://www.straitstimes.com/business/microsoft-debates-what-to-do-with-ai-lab-in-china

Files
New Prediction
Pramila
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
90% (0%)
No
Apr 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username