INFER Public

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2024 05:27PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Mar 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Jun 26, 2024	14%	-10%	+11%
No	96%	Mar 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025	Jun 26, 2024	86%	+10%	-11%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 28, 2024 03:18PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	Mar 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025	Jun 28, 2024	8%	+7%	-1%
No	85%	Mar 28, 2024 to Mar 28, 2025	Jun 28, 2024	92%	-7%	+1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:10AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	8%	9%	-1%	+2%
Su-35 fighter jets	9%	11%	-2%	+0%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:10AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q4	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
2024 Q1	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
2024 Q2	2%	1%	+1%	+0%

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:11AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	19%	14%	+5%	-2%
No	81%	86%	-5%	+2%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 06, 2024 10:11AM UTC
(27 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024	May 6, 2024	11%	-1%	+0%
No	90%	Apr 6, 2024 to Oct 6, 2024	May 6, 2024	89%	+1%	+0%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 04:23PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	5%	+1%	+0%
No	94%	95%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 04:24PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Apr 11, 2024 to Oct 11, 2024	Jul 11, 2024	0%	+5%	+0%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 04:32PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	82%	-2%	+4%
No	20%	18%	+2%	-4%

From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(29 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 04:34PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	80%	94%	-14%	+8%
Between 50 and 99, inclusive	13%	5%	+8%	-8%
Between 100 and 149, inclusive	4%	0%	+4%	+0%
Between 150 and 199, inclusive	2%	0%	+2%	+0%
More than or equal to 200	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

Pramila

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