61st
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DKC

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I love dogs, travel, writing, and geopolitical forecasting. And I feel fortunate to have all of those in my life.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India? 0.000485
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023? -0.086941
Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)? -0.019429
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022? 0.018133
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022? 0.01198
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022? -0.013395
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023? -0.008339
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will 200 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in the North Central and North West zones of Nigeria? -0.007426
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict? 0.000881
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? 0.116606
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province? -0.000068
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia? -0.000149
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? 0.002796
Jun 01, 2023 12:45AM UTC On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center? 0.131109
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? 0.005214
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon? -0.023664
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? 0.008448
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? -0.019175
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? 0.019987
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? -0.000053
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