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How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2021 06:11PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 70,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 130,000		Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2021 06:11PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.45%		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%		Answer was incorrect
More than 1.2%		Answer was incorrect

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2021 06:22PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2021 06:29PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 5.5%		Answer was incorrect
More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%		Answer was incorrect
Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 12%		Answer was incorrect

[Experimental] What will be the consensus crowd forecast on October 1, 2021, on whether COVID-19 originated in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 11:24PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
0-10%		Answer was incorrect
10-20%		Answer was incorrect
20-30%		Answer was incorrect
30-40%		Answer was correct
40-50%		Answer was incorrect
50-60%		Answer was incorrect
60-70%		Answer was incorrect
70-80%		Answer was incorrect
80-90%		Answer was incorrect
90-100%		Answer was incorrect

Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 06, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2021 01:34AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2021 02:17AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

What percentage of the continental U.S. will be experiencing severe drought or worse on 22 February 2022?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 22, 2022 09:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 15, 2022 12:16AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 33.0		Answer was incorrect
Between 33.0 and 35.5, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35.5 but less than 36.5		Answer was correct
Between 36.5 and 39.0, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 39.0		Answer was incorrect

In Stanford University's 2022 AI Report, what percentage of new US resident PhD's in AI will be Asian, Black or African American, Hispanic, or multiracial?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 15, 2022 12:29AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 28		Answer was incorrect
Between 28 and 30, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 30 but less than 32		Answer was incorrect
Between 32 and 35, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 35		Answer was correct

Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters?

As of Jun 14, 2022 07:58PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 02:33PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 14, 2022 07:58PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

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