At least not in the next year considering that action will put Iran in a position where many countries will not support it
0.127984
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 8 | 56 | 23 | 211 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 8 | 19 | 13 | 52 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-42%)
Yes
92%
(+42%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
No if we consider Iran´s current situation against Israel
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+3%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
95%
(-3%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Moving previous forecast to a high 5% considering there are some initiatives that support this agreement
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Not in the current circumstances
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-20%)
Yes
90%
(+20%)
No
Changing my prediction due to the fact that is not probable to have this type of labeling when there is a election process in US in this moment
Files
Why do you think the US election affects the likelihood of this question?
Files
With the current situation the probability has increased