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Definitions |
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
(+35%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
With the current situation the probability has increased
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(-42%)
Yes
92%
(+42%)
No
At least not in the next year considering that action will put Iran in a position where many countries will not support it
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
No if we consider Iran´s current situation against Israel
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
5%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
95%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+3%)
Yes
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
95%
(-3%)
No
Apr 25, 2024 to Oct 25, 2024
Moving previous forecast to a high 5% considering there are some initiatives that support this agreement
Files
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